कण

kaṇa vBeta PEPE

— · model-free · closed-form first passage

CONNECTING

Last price—

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24h high—

24h low—

Leg · frozen rung—

NEUTRAL

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Rung (locked)—

1σ hour—

Leg age—

Extent—

Retrace—

To flip—

To flip · reach—

Since new extreme—

Efficiency 60m—

Awaiting data

Regimeσ fast vs σ slow

σ fast (45m)—

σ slow (24h)—

Shift ratio—

Authoritative—

Awaiting data

Trigger · flip ≤ 15mAUC 0.836 · lift 4.1x

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Awaiting data

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Clock & envelopeflip ≤60m · range 60m

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Awaiting data

Range next 60m—

Range 12h—

Flip window—

Successor side—

Direction edgenone (coin)

The ruler now reacts to a volatility shock immediately (fast-up, slow-down) and the rung is locked when the leg is born, so “To flip” can only fall as price retraces — it can never move away from you mid-leg. Card 03 decides which head is authoritative and dims the other. Neither predicts direction.

Runway leftclosed form · ρ 0.364

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Awaiting data

New extreme first—

Heat 60m · 4h—

Road ÷ heat—

Confirm at—

4h surprise—

Reach +1σ · +2σ—

Another ½σ hour—

Quartile band—

vs 1σ hour—

Not a model — a formula. For a driftless walk under a trailing stop, three numbers you already have (To flip, Retrace, Rung) give the whole distribution of remaining travel. Tested against LightGBM on 552,271 rows: the formula matched it (ρ 0.364 vs 0.359), so geometry is the ceiling. Median and the 25–75 band are well calibrated; the far-low tail reads slightly optimistic.

Side tiltv7 event clock · experimental

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Awaiting data

The only place direction has ever been measurable. Built on a separate clock: this card streams raw trades and closes a bar every fixed $ of notional — the 1-minute data every other card uses carries no directional signal at all (AUC 0.50). Validated strictly forward, trained on past only, with a shuffle tripwire. It is a tilt, never a call. The edge decays with elapsed time, so when the sub-line shows the live horizon far above the trained one, the percentage is stale and should be ignored.

Record ledger

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time	price	dir	rung	age	f15	f60	rng60	1σh	shift	retr	toflip	sinceX	eff	runway	pNew	flip in	zone	15m out	60m out	runway

कण kaṇa v5.1 — flip probability is a CLOSED FORM: z = ToFlip / (σ₁√T), P = 2Φ(−z), one monotone correction fitted on development data only. Sealed: flip15 AUC 0.826 / TRIGGER 0.708 at 6.19× · flip60 AUC 0.708. No flip model, nothing to retrain. Range head retained (ρ 0.710).